Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom
We expect UK GDP to grow by 1.1% this year and 1.7% in 2025, driven by stronger consumer spending growth. But our forecast implies slower quarterly growth than the above-trend pace in H1 2024 due to the impact of tighter fiscal policy and the lagged effects of past interest rate rises. We've nudged down our 2025 forecast by 0.1ppt compared with last month due to an upward revision to our gas price forecast, which will mean inflation is slightly higher.
UK: Tight policy settings will cool growth after strong H1