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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Jan 31, 2026
Length 6 Pages
SKU # OFE20872803

Description

We've cut our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Ukraine by 0.5ppts to 2% y/y. We estimate GDP growth in 2025 likely slowed to 1.8% y/y, limited by the escalated Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. We estimate that the resulting energy shortages caused a 2ppts drag on growth in Q4 2025 and will dampen the economy even more in Q1 2026.

Table of Contents

6 Pages
Ukraine: Attacks on energy infrastructure limit near-term activity
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy and politics

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