Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine
Description
We've cut our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Ukraine by 0.5ppts to 2% y/y. We estimate GDP growth in 2025 likely slowed to 1.8% y/y, limited by the escalated Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. We estimate that the resulting energy shortages caused a 2ppts drag on growth in Q4 2025 and will dampen the economy even more in Q1 2026.
Table of Contents
6 Pages
- Ukraine: Attacks on energy infrastructure limit near-term activity
- Forecast overview
- Recent developments
- Short-term outlook
- Key drivers of our short-term forecast
- Economic risk
- Economic risk evaluation
- Background
- Economic development
- Structure of the economy
- Balance of payments and structure of trade
- Policy and politics
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