Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine
The severe energy shortages and the intensifying war, accompanied by a new wave of mobilisation, have dampened Ukraine's economic recovery to only 1.1% y/y of GDP growth in June, from 3.7% y/y in May. But due to stronger growth in Q1, GDP reached a decent 4.1% y/y expansion in H1. Although we still expect GDP will climb by 3.8% this year, risks are tilted to the downside given the poor June reading. We currently forecast growth of 4.8% for next year, but will revise down our call in our next forecast round to reflect the impact of the upcoming increase in taxes.
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