We revised our FY2024 – starting 1 July 2024 – GDP forecast for Tonga down by 0.44ppts to 1.81% growth as current activity estimates do not point towards a strong post-disaster and post-Covid rebound. Weak agricultural production is the main drag on growth, with unfavourable El Niño weather conditions exacerbated by climate change affecting harvests. The higher price of core food crops with the lingering effects of the 2022 Hunga Tonga‒Hunga Ha’apai volcanic eruption and tsunami weigh on consumer confidence.
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