We've cut our GDP growth forecasts for Italy by 0.5ppts to 0.4% in 2025 and by 0.2ppts to 0.7% in 2026. GDP was flat in Q4 2024, a touch lower than we expected and in line with the poor reading for Q3. We now assume the US will hit Europe with a 10% blanket tariff. Fiscal policy remains a drag, trade uncertainty is elevated, and labour market risks skew to the downside.
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