We've kept our near-term GDP forecast for Sweden largely unchanged and expect growth of 2.4% in 2025. We think growth will pick up due to household real income gains, easing fiscal and monetary policies, and better external demand. But we see increased uncertainty around global protectionism and the extent to which households in Sweden and across Europe spend or save their real income gains. The resilience of the labour market will also be key.
Sweden: A weak start to Q4 puts the growth pickup at risk