We've lowered our near-term GDP growth forecasts for Sweden by 0.2ppts to 2.2% in 2025 and by 0.3ppts to 2.2% in 2026. We now expect an across-the-board tariff of 10% to be applied on the EU by the US, which will dampen exports and investment. Meanwhile, higher inflation and uncertainty will negatively affect consumption. Unemployment is also set to decline at a slower pace. That said, we still expect a domestic demand-led pick-up in activity this year.
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