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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Jan 15, 2026
Length 8 Pages
SKU # OFE20872850

Description

We have kept our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Sweden unchanged at 2.4%, among the highest rates of expansion for advanced economies. Domestic demand will be the main driver, fuelled by positive real income gains, past monetary policy loosening, and supportive fiscal policy. The external sector faces headwinds from US tariffs, Chinese competition, and policy uncertainty. We think the Riksbank will keep its policy rate on hold at 1.75% through most of this year, with one 25bps hike to 2% by year-end.

Table of Contents

8 Pages
Sweden: Positive end to 2025 keeps recovery on track
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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