We've lowered our growth forecast for Sweden in 2024 by 0.1ppt to 0.7% and increased it by 0.1ppt to 2.3% in 2025 due to a downside surprise to Q3 GDP. We now project medium-term GDP will be 0.1ppt smaller due to expected policy changes following the US elections, namely more protectionism. But we still expect the economy to pick up pace due to household real income gains, supportive fiscal and monetary policies, and improved domestic and external demand.
Sweden: Riksbank maintains a dovish bias despite new risks