Economic growth in Rwanda will likely lose momentum this year following a surprisingly better performance in 2024. We forecast real GDP to grow by 7.2% in 2025, following an estimated expansion of 8.7% last year. Below-average rainfall is predicted over H1 2025, which could diminish crop harvests with a concomitant increase in Rwanda's food import requirements. As a result, we expect agricultural output and exports to decline this year. There is also the risk that consumer spending could decelerate and trade relations with the East African Community members (Rwanda's largest export market) could deteriorate, with an uncertain economic recovery in key export destination China weighing in.
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