Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Portugal by 0.2ppts to 1.7% and kept our 2025 forecast unchanged at 1.9%. The slightly weaker-than-expected Q2 GDP outturn of just 0.1% q/q, lower than our projection of 0.3%, drove our downgrade to the 2024 forecast. An outsized drag from net exports weighed on Q2 growth, so we don't think this weak performance represents the underlying growth momentum. We expect a pickup in GDP growth to 0.4% q/q in Q3 and 0.5% in Q4. Risks are balanced for H2 2024 but turn less healthy after, as the expected step-up in the EU's Recovery Resilience Facility is uncertain.
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