Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
We have raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Portugal to 6.9% from 4.8% last month. This reflects the huge Q1 GDP upside surprise. GDP rose 2.6% q/q, while we had pencilled in just a 0.4% gain to the start of the year. This builds on last year's solid growth, adding to the strong carry-over effect in 2022 (no growth from Q2 to Q4 inclusive would still result in a full-year increase of 6.4% in 2022). While we expect modest q/q increases going forward, a solid rebound from tourism is underway, bringing some upside to an otherwise negative risk skew.
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