Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Poland
Current data point to the remarkable resilience of Poland's economy. Even should there be a marked slowdown in activity later in the year as the Ukraine war and tighter monetary policy weigh on spending, a strong Q1 growth performance will support this year's GDP print. Moreover, we think loose fiscal policy and high nominal wage growth will cushion the impact of higher prices on households' disposable incomes. So, while we are maintaining our GDP growth forecasts of 4.2% in 2022 and 3.5% in 2023, we are likely to nudge up our 2022 forecast in May.
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