Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Pakistan
Rising inflation, a widening external deficit and political uncertainty are adding to macroeconomic imbalances. Overall, we forecast GDP growth will slow to 4.2% in 2022, after a rise of 6.0% in 2021. Political uncertainty has increased drastically as the prime minister is due to face a no-confidence vote in parliament on 3 April. If the government loses the vote, the opposition is likely to form a coalition government for a few months and then call early national elections. On the other hand, country’s cyclical position has returned to a neutral stance and economic growth is likely to be driven by an expansion in the manufacturing capacity.
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