We've kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for mainland Norway at 1.5%. Mainland GDP growth was upgraded for H1 2024 and rose by 0.5% q/q in Q3. But extraction investment mostly drove these revisions. Consumption and private investment data signal a less sanguine picture. But loose fiscal policy, softer inflation, and a resilient labour market will likely support a cyclical rebound next year and help offset the tight monetary policy.
Norway: Historical GDP revised up, but the fine print is important