Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
Our 2022 mainland GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 3.6%, but a stronger-than-expected impact from the war in Ukraine on household consumption represents the main downside risk to our outlook. Otherwise, growth prospects remain resolute. An incredibly tight labour market should see strong wage growth this year, which will partially offset the impact of higher inflation on real incomes. Government accounts will also be supported by high oil and natural gas prices. The petroleum sector is committed to maintaining high natural gas export volumes as European countries shift away from Russian gas, but the scope for increasing overall production capacity this year remains limited. In 2023, we see mainland growth easing to 2.3%.
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