Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
The fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a brief but sharp hit from the Omicron outbreak have prompted us to cut our 2022 mainland GDP growth forecast by 0.7ppts to 3.6%. While government subsidies for household electricity bills are containing energy price rises, the stark strengthening of underlying price pressures has led us to expect the strongest year for inflation since 1989, which is weighing on the consumption outlook. With renewables comprising the bulk of the energy mix, higher oil and gas prices should not directly disrupt industrial prospects this year, but they will be hampered by an even longer unwinding of supply bottlenecks than previously assumed. In 2023, we expect growth to slow to 2.3%, up from 2.1% previously.
- Norway: Slower growth outlook impacted by Russia-Ukraine war
- Forecast overview
- Recent developments
- Short-term outlook
- Key drivers of our short-term forecast
- Economic risk
- Economic risk evaluation
- Risk warnings
- What to watch out for
- Exposure to key global risks
- Long-term prospects
- Background
- Economic development
- Structure of the economy
- Balance of payments and structure of trade
- Policy and politics
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