Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Mexico
The escalation of the Ukraine-Russia conflict has added an extra layer of uncertainty to our outlook just weeks after the threat of the Omicron outbreak started to wane. Mexico's direct trade links with Russia and Ukraine are marginal, but the massive surge in commodity prices and the additional strain on global supply chains add downside risks to our outlook. We maintain our 2022 GDP growth forecast at 2% but we have cut our 2023 forecast by 0.2ppts to 2.7%. The government refuses to join sanctions against Russia, but the industrial sector remains vulnerable to disruptions of semiconductors and metals.
- Untitled Chapter
- Forecast overview
- Recent developments
- Short-term outlook
- Key drivers of our short-term forecast
- Economic risk
- Economic risk evaluation
- Risk warnings
- What to watch out for
- Exposure to key global risks
- Long-term prospects
- Background
- Economic development
- Structure of the economy
- Balance of payments and structure of trade
- Policy
- Politics
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