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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lebanon

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Aug 15, 2025
Length 6 Pages
SKU # OFE20317564

Description

We raised our GDP growth forecasts for Lebanon by 0.4ppts to 1.8% for 2025 and by 0.7ppts to 4.3% for 2026, both modestly above the upgraded consensus. The formation of a government earlier this year renewed the impetus for reform, leading to the recent passage of a bank restructuring law. We think external funding, including from the IMF, is conditional on finalising other key legislation, such as depositor compensation and the 2026 budget bill.

Table of Contents

6 Pages
Lebanon: Security concerns constrain an improvement in the outlook
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy and politics

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