We continue to forecast Italy's GDP will expand by 0.8% in 2025, a small improvement from the 0.5% expansion we estimate for 2024. We project inflation will average 1.9% this year, up from 1% in 2024, as the contribution from energy inflation will likely increase from the sizeable drop seen in recent quarters. Risks to our forecasts are to the downside and linked to domestic and international factors.
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