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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Mar 11, 2026
Length 8 Pages
SKU # OFE21076986

Description

We raised our inflation forecast by 0.5ppts this year to 2.2% to reflect the impact from the US/Israel-Iran war. In our central scenario, the impact on GDP is more limited, and Italy's GDP is expected to grow by 0.7% this year, 0.2 ppts lower than our previous forecast. But, risks are skewed to the downside – a more negative assumption on energy prices would have a more meaningful impact on inflation and activity as the Italian economy is quite exposed to this shock.

Table of Contents

8 Pages
Italy: War in Iran will impact inflation and private consumption
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short
term outlook
Key drivers of our short
term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long
term prospects
Alternative long
run scenarios
Background
Economic developments
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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