We forecast GDP growth for Italy at 0.9% for 2025, a boost from the 0.4% expansion we expect this year. We've recently downgraded our 2024 forecast based on relatively subdued Q3 growth. We project inflation will pick up to average 1.9% next year, as the contribution from energy inflation will likely increase from a sizeable drop this year.
Italy: A recovery is still likely, but risks have heightened