Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy



We've cut our Italian GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 0.6% for 2024 to reflect recent national accounts downgrades to growth from last year and Q1 2024. Although we've kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast at 1.0%, we recognise some downside risks to our outlook as surveys have been softer than at the start of this year. We project inflation will average 1.0% this year and 1.7% next, when the contribution from energy inflation will likely increase.


Italy: National Accounts revisions drive forecast downgrades
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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