Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy
Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, we have revised our forecast for Italian growth downward. We now expect 2022 GDP to grow 2.9%, up 0.1ppt since last month after Q1 GDP data came in slightly better than expected, yet down more than 1ppt since our February forecast. With energy prices expected to remain higher for longer, Italian inflation is set to average just below 6% this year. And given the speed with which events in Ukraine are unfolding, uncertainty will remain high, with risks skewed to the downside.
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