We forecast Ireland's GDP will expand by 4.0% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026, after declining by 0.2% this year. Final figures for Q3 show GDP rebounded strongly, posting an upgrade to 3.5% q/q from 2.0% in the flash release. We think this is the start of a recovery in GDP after five declines in the previous six quarters. But this is far from guaranteed given persistent data distortions.
Ireland: The expected general election result maintains status quo