Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq
Despite a decrease in oil output in Q1 2023, we've maintained our 2023 GDP growth forecast at 4.3%. This is because Iraq is seeking to expand its oil opportunities through offering production and exploration licenses in H2 2023. So far, it's kept its promise to stick to oil cuts, reducing oil production from 4.42 mb/d in January to 4.37 mb/d, hovering around the agreed quota of 4.43 mb/d. But if the April OPEC+ meeting results in a second round of cuts, this will likely pose downside risks to growth, as Iraq remains vulnerable to oil fluctuations.
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