We've kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Turkey at a below-consensus 1.9%, down from an estimated 2.7% expansion last year. The moderation in the January PMI and capacity utilisation rates suggests industry is not out of the woods despite a surge in output in December 2024. We don't think the US will impose targeted tariffs on its imports from Turkey, but expect the global tariff turmoil will act as a headwind for activity and investment.
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