Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India

The Reserve Bank of India's hawkish shift in April and the surge in March CPI to 7% have pushed up our 2022-end policy rate forecast to 5%. We expect the economy to weather the slightly faster pace of monetary policy normalisation and maintain our 2022 and 2023 GDP growth forecasts at 7.3% and 5.8% respectively. However, we admit downside risks to growth have increased.


India: Surging inflation to hasten monetary policy normalisation
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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