Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hungary
Economic data confirm that momentum has held up even after the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But the impact of war will weigh on the post-pandemic recovery, even if the process proves delayed compared to what was expected. First, the recent survey results point to record input price pressures and renewed supply delivery issues, which will keep a lid on industrial output. Second, inflation staying higher for longer will curb consumption. On balance, we have maintained our GDP forecast for 2022, but on the back of upward revision to 2021 figures the growth rate forecast fell 0.2ppts to 4.4%. Our 2023 GDP growth forecast at 3.4% remains unchanged.
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