Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece
We have lowered our Greek GDP call for 2022, with growth now forecast at 3.0%, down 0.3pp from last month as the outlook has deteriorated due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This follows solid 7.9% expansion in 2021. Although the national accounts showed downward revisions for Q2 and Q3 last year, the economy experienced a mild expansion in Q4. We now expect the economy to suffer further in 2022 due to the rapid escalation of the war in Ukraine and the impact on the eurozone economies. High energy prices and food inflation on the rise remain the main short-term challenges for the Greek economy, but other risks to the outlook are mounting. Among the other factors, a halt to production, turmoil in the financial markets and slowing trade are already playing a role.
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