We cut our growth forecast for Germany to 0.4% this year, down 0.2ppts. Surveys indicate that the industrial malaise continues, while higher inflation undermines the consumer recovery. The latest industrial activity and retail sales data indicate some upside risks to our forecast of GDP stagnating in Q4 2024. But we don't see that as a turning point, as economic policy remains restrictive, trade uncertainty is elevated, and labour market risks skew to the downside.
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