Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
GDP expanded by 0.2% q/q in Q3, according to a flash estimate aided by private and government consumption, but the overall level of output in earlier quarters was lower due to data revisions. We maintain our call of a 0.1% contraction this year and don't expect a meaningful economic impact from the breakdown of the German traffic light coalition in the near term, as a lack of supportive measures was part of our baseline. For 2025, we think that more upbeat private consumption will support growth of 0.6%, but we acknowledge downside risk for demand from a softening labour market amidst continuing industrial weakness.
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