Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
German industry and construction had a better-than-expected start to the year. And while we expect to see some reversal in that strength, the economy is likely to avoid a technical recession, leading us to raise our 2023 GDP forecast to 0.3% growth (up 0.4ppts from last month). That said, we now assume that recent market turbulence will add to the monetary policy headwinds later this year and next. We have therefore cut our 2024 forecast by 0.5ppts, to 0.8% growth.
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