Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
The Russian invasion of Ukraine will materially undermine this year's recovery. The headwinds will primarily come via higher energy prices that will heavily curtail consumers' real incomes and the rebound in spending. New supply disruptions are also set to constrain the budding recovery in industrial production, at least in the near-term. We now expect GDP growth of 2.4% in 2022, down from 3.5% last month. Our 2023 GDP growth forecast has been raised slightly to 3.2% from 3.0% in part due to higher defence spending, but we are considering additional forecast cuts.
- Germany: Higher energy prices, new bottlenecks are a drag on growth
- Forecast overview
- Recent developments
- Short-term outlook
- Key drivers of our short-term forecast
- Economic risk
- Economic risk evaluation
- Germany: Higher energy prices, new bottlenecks are a drag on growth
- Risk warnings
- What to watch out for
- Exposure to key global risks
- Long-term prospects
- Background
- Economic development
- Structure of the economy
- Balance of payments and structure of trade
- Policy
- Politics
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