Historical revisions to growth in 2023 and 2024 have mechanically lowered our forecast for this year to 0.9%, although we've kept the level of GDP unchanged. We still expect a domestic demand-led pick-up in activity, with the key downside risk being an escalation in US-EU trade tensions. We also expect a small increase in defence spending from the current 2%, but that will not have a notable impact on growth. We leave growth in 2026 unchanged at 1.3%.
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