Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Finland
We have lowered our GDP growth forecast for Finland this year to 1.7% from 2.3% previously due to its high exposure to the fall-out from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As well as inflation being higher for longer, which will squeeze real incomes and dent consumption, Russia accounts for 10% of Finland's goods trade, among the highest in Europe. We expect the economy to remain flat in Q1 and contract in Q2, before rebounding in H2, with 1.8% expansion now seen in 2023.
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