We forecast GDP growth for Estonia at 2.5% for 2025. We see signs of a recovery this year, but without a swift domestic turnaround it will be weak initially. Estonia's GDP growth was positive again in Q3 2024, but was close to stagnation at 0.03%. This lack of momentum bodes poorly for growth prospects. Unlike in 2008 and 2020, when GDP posted a clear one-quarter bottoming out followed by a swift return to growth, we think the trough of the recession of the last two years will be at least three quarters, in the absence of major historical data revisions.
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