Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Estonia
Estonia's economy didn't shrink for the first time in more than two years in Q2, which indicates that the years-long recession has likely ended. The stagnation in Q2 and our forecast of soft growth in Q3 and Q4 will likely result in a mild GDP contraction of 0.5% for this year. We expect growth of 3.6% next year as the economy starts to make up lost ground, but this is 1.8ppts lower than we had previously forecast. Rather than a quick and total turnaround, 2025 will likely be a transition period between the recession and a full-blown recovery in 2026.
- Estonia: Budget consolidation will weigh on growth in 2025
- Forecast overview
- Recent developments
- Short-term outlook
- Key drivers of our short-term forecast
- Economic risk
- Economic risk evaluation
- Background
- Economic development
- Structure of the economy
- Balance of payments
- Policy and politics
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