We have increased our GDP growth forecast from 1.8% to 2.2% for 2025 and from 2.8% to 3.1% for 2026. This revision is mainly due to base effects. Data indicate the 2024 contraction (-1.9% y/y) was more severe than expected, largely because of the energy crisis. Net trade will bolster growth during H1 2025, while consumption and investment are likely to stay weak until at least Q3 2025 due to political uncertainty. Our projections exceed consensus for both years.
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