Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador
We revised our growth forecast up by 0.6ppts to 1.8% for 2025 and 2.8% for 2026 after a null growth in 2024. Private demand is expected to recover from a 1% contraction in 2024 to 1.8% growth in 2025. This rebound is mainly due to base effects, as market conditions for consumers and businesses will remain tough. Our GDP projections are above the consensus for 2025. Yet, risks are tilted to the downside. A worsening security situation and an extension of the ongoing electricity shortages will cut growth next year.
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