Our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Ecuador remains at 0.9%, but we have lowered our projection for 2025 by 0.2ppts to 1.2%. Increased VAT rates and high loan interest rates have negatively affected household consumption and investment, which we expect have declined in 2024. However, growth in non-oil exports and increased government spending during the election cycle will partially offset these contractions.
Ecuador: Closure of oil wells in Yasuní Park will hit the economy