Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic

We've lowered our GDP growth forecast for the Czech Republic by 0.1ppt to 2.3% in 2025. We expect reciprocal blanket 10% tariffs between the US and the EU from Q2. These will have only minor impact on growth in 2025, as they will be offset by looser monetary policy and a pause in fiscal consolidation. But the Czech economy is vulnerable to trade restrictions, so we have lowered our 2026 GDP growth forecast by 0.5pts to 2.7%, with domestic demand driving growth.


Czech Republic: Trade restrictions will curb growth
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Medium-term outlook
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings.
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Politics and policy

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