Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China
After a better-than-expected start to the year, recent Omicron outbreaks will undermine China's economic recovery, in addition to the ongoing real estate downturn. While China's economy will be less impacted by the Russia-Ukraine war than Europe and some other parts of the world, the resulting rise in global energy and commodity prices, as well as expected slower global trade, will weigh on China's external demand. We expect the policy easing outlined in the 2022 Government Work Report (GWR) will be enough to support our GDP growth forecast of 4.8% for this year. But we believe the government's growth target of "around 5.5%" for this year is ambitious. We forecast GDP growth will pick up to 5.4% in 2023.
- China: Covid and Russia's war add to 2022 growth headwinds
- Forecast overview
- Recent developments
- Short-term outlook
- Key drivers of our short-term forecast
- Economic risk
- Economic risk evaluation
- Risk warnings
- What to watch out for
- Exposure to key global risks
- Long-term prospects
- Background
- Economic development
- Structure of the economy
- Balance of payments and structure of trade
- Policy
- Politics
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