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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Jan 15, 2026
Length 9 Pages
SKU # OFE20872849

Description

Canada's economy ended 2025 on a shaky footing, and we expect meagre GDP growth until the latter half of 2026 as game-changing domestic and US trade policy shifts prompt structural adjustments. After an estimated 1.7% expansion in 2025, we forecast GDP growth will slow to 1% in 2026, up 0.1ppt from last month, before rising to 2.1% in 2027, the same as last month.

Table of Contents

9 Pages
Canada: 2026 will likely be a tale of two halves
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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