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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Oct 14, 2025
Length 8 Pages
SKU # OFE20535944

Description

The economy will likely struggle to grow and teeter on the edge of recession in the near term. But we expect growth to pick up as 2026 progresses, driven by new fiscal stimulus, slightly lower interest rates, and the removal of most US tariffs after renegotiation of the USMCA next year. We still forecast GDP growth of 1.1% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026, unchanged from last month.

Table of Contents

8 Pages
Canada: Teetering on the edge of recession
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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