Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada
With economic momentum fading, the labour market softening, and inflation falling below the 2% target in September, we now think the Bank of Canada (BoC) will front-load policy normalization with 50bp rate cuts in October and December. Despite subdued near-term growth prospects, GDP will likely rise by 1% in 2024, up 0.1ppt from last month, before quicker rate cuts underpin a faster 1.4% advance in 2025, up 0.2ppts from our previous forecast.
- Canada: Faster rate cuts are likely as growth slows amid disinflation
- Forecast overview
- Recent developments
- Short-term outlook
- Key drivers of our short-term forecast
- Economic risk
- Economic risk evaluation
- Risk warnings
- What to watch out for
- Exposure to key global risks
- Long-term prospects
- Background
- Economic development
- Structure of the economy
- Balance of payments and structure of trade
- Policy
- Politics
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