We have lowered our near-term forecast for Finland as we now expect reciprocal across-the-board 10% tariffs on EU-US trade from Q2 this year. This will dampen exports and investment, while higher inflation will negatively affect real income growth. Unemployment is also set to decline at a slower pace. We still expect a domestic demand-led pick-up in activity, but have lowered our GDP growth forecasts by 0.1ppt to 1.3% in 2025 and by 0.5ppts to 1.3% in 2026.
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