After a poor performance in the first half of last year, Botswana’s diamond industry continued to disappoint in Q3 2024, declining by 14.8% q/q. Although De Beers' latest production report indicates that Botswana’s diamond output rose in the final quarter of 2024, the production guidance for 2025 was lowered significantly. Based on these developments, we forecast Botswana's overall diamond production to decline by a further 11.7% in 2025, compared with an estimated 26.6% drop in output in 2024. Lower diamond output will put pressure on Botswana's economic growth, fiscal balance, and current account in 2025.
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