We raised our GDP growth forecast for Belarus by 0.4ppts to 2.4% y/y for 2025 from 2% y/y. Our revisions reflect continuing momentum in domestic demand, exports, and private consumption. This trend is set to moderate as exports slow in H2 as Russian import-substitution weighs on exports from Belarus to its key market. Political risks continue to weigh on the economy, though their severity has waned following the relatively smooth re-election of President Alexander Lukashenko and the tentative US-Russian talks about Ukraine.
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