Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Azerbaijan
We estimate Azerbaijan's growth rate will slow to 0.9% this year from 4.8% in 2022. The primary reason is the drop in oil production, which was down 8% y/y in H1 and was only partially offset by a 3% increase in gas production. We expect growth of 3.1% in 2024, supported by government investment into Nagorno-Karabakh. But we also see risks to growth if tensions with Armenia flare up again or the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalates and causes disruption to Black Sea oil exports.
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