Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Argentina

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Argentina



We cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 3.8%, reflecting base effects from a 2024 growth revision to -3.7% from -3.9%. Our 2025 forecast aligns with the consensus. Despite our updated US baseline forecast with looser fiscal policy and targeted tariffs, we expect its effects on Argentina to be limited as it is a relatively closed economy, dependent mostly on cereal exports.


Argentina: Milei aims to further curb inflation
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term growth outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risk scenarios
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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