Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Argentina
We continue to forecast a 3.8% y/y GDP contraction for Argentina in 2024, and have cut our projection for 2025 by 0.3ppts to 4% y/y growth. Our revision reflects mixed signals about Argentina's recovery in Q3. Despite consumer confidence rebounding in July and August, consumption declined in August amid higher inflation in food and beverages and the resumption of subsidy cuts in energy and transportation. Paradoxically, consumer sentiment reversed in September despite inflation breaching the 4% m/m floor set by recent monthly prints.
- Argentina: Signals about the economic recovery are mixed
- Forecast overview
- Recent developments
- Short-term growth outlook
- Key drivers of our short-term forecast
- Economic risk
- Economic risk evaluation
- Risk warnings
- What to watch out for
- Exposure to key global risk scenarios
- Long-term prospects
- Background
- Economic development
- Structure of the economy
- Balance of payments and structure of trade
- Policy
- Politics
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