Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Argentina
We've revised down our 2024 GDP forecast by 0.2ppts to -3.8% y/y, below consensus and the IMF's estimate of -3.5%. Our revision reflects a larger-than-expected contraction in Q2 data, mainly in investments. We expect a U-shaped recovery for the Argentinian economy, with consumption improving gradually due to slow rises in real wages and a weaker agricultural sector in Q3. We forecast GDP growth of 4.3% next year, up 0.2ppts from our previous estimate.
- Argentina: We think Milei’s balanced budget aim is too ambitious
- Forecast overview
- Recent developments
- Short-term growth outlook
- Key drivers of our short-term forecast
- Economic risk
- Economic risk evaluation
- Risk warnings
- What to watch out for
- Exposure to key global risk scenarios
- Long-term prospects
- Background
- Economic development
- Structure of the economy
- Balance of payments and structure of trade
- Policy
- Politics
Research Assistance
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