We have revised up our basic metals production forecast for 2025 to 3.7% growth. However, this is due to China’s Q4 data coming in significantly higher than expected. This revision masks our more bearish outlook on basic metals since the last forecast release amid the escalation in tariffs. China’s government has recently mentioned the need to restructure the steel industry amid growing international pushback due to oversupply and the surge in its exports flooding global markets.
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