Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United States
US industrial growth has slowed in the face of high inflation, slowing export growth, declining inventories, and shifting consumer preferences towards services. Q2 GDP fell by -0.6%%, dragged by declining residential investment, declining construction, and reduced consumption of goods. Consumer spending has proven resilient, helping to increase personal consumption of services. This will act as a primary lever of support for the economy heading into H2 2022 as we anticipate an economic contraction in Q1 2023, due to persistent inflation and rising interest rates. Our GDP forecasts have materially reduced to 1.7% for 2022, and 1.0% in 2023.
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